← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 68% | 69% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.85 | value: +17% |
| Bournemouth win | 12% | 7% | 8.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Benik Afobe · Bournemouth |
| 28' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · Liverpool |
| 40' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · Liverpool |
| 59' | ⚽ | Divock Origi · Liverpool |
| 87' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Fraser · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 13.00 | 1647.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1911.68 | 1696.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.21 | 29.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.30 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| league points | 59.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.60 | 27.15 |
| state index | 1.45 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 309.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |