← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 47% | 53% | 2.08 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 30% | 23% | 3.30 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 23% | 23% | 4.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Álvaro Negredo · Middlesbrough |
| 13' | ⚽ | Lazar Marković · Hull |
| 19' | 🟨 | Sam Clucas · Hull |
| 21' | 🟨 | Adam Clayton · Middlesbrough |
| 27' | ⚽ | Oumar Niasse · Hull |
| 33' | ⚽ | Abel Hernández · Hull |
| 45' | ⚽ | Marten de Roon · Middlesbrough |
| 70' | ⚽ | Harry Maguire · Hull |
| 85' | 🟨 | Alfred N'Diaye · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days | 94.00 | 1251.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1664.51 | 1671.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.04 | -23.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| league points | 27.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 28.88 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 107.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |