← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 44% | 48% | 2.22 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.39 | fair |
| Man City win | 27% | 26% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 26' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 35' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 52' | 🟨 | Gaël Clichy · Man City |
| 77' | 🟨 | Fabian Delph · Man City |
| 83' | 🟨 | Vincent Kompany · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | N'Golo Kanté · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 278.00 | 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1790.88 | 1739.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.72 | 6.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.80 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| league points | 69.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.94 | 1.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.13 | 28.87 |
| state index | 1.03 | 0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 260.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |