← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 68% | 67% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.35 | value: +8% |
| West Ham win | 13% | 12% | 7.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Héctor Bellerín · Arsenal |
| 39' | 🟨 | Manuel Lanzini · West Ham |
| 58' | ⚽ | Mesut Özil · Arsenal |
| 62' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 68' | ⚽ | Theo Walcott · Arsenal |
| 77' | 🟨 | Sam Byram · West Ham |
| 83' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 7492.00 | 674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1713.50 | 1538.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.20 | -40.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.50 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.51 |
| league points | 51.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.00 | 28.01 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 8.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |