← Premier League 2016-17 · Tue, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 39% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.16 | value: +4% |
| West Brom win | 30% | 27% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | M'Baye Niang · Watford |
| 40' | 🟨 | Miguel Britos · Watford |
| 43' | 🟨 | Hal Robson-Kanu · West Brom |
| 45' | 🟨 | James McClean · West Brom |
| 49' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · West Brom |
| 65' | 🟨 | Miguel Britos · Watford |
| 65' | 🟥 | Miguel Britos · Watford |
| 69' | 🟨 | M'Baye Niang · Watford |
| 83' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 277.00 | 855.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1489.71 | 1572.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.71 | -0.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 34.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 34.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -1.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.67 | 30.38 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -1.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 143.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |