← Premier League 2016-17 · Tue, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 61% | 64% | 1.61 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 24% | 18% | 4.05 | fair |
| Everton win | 15% | 18% | 6.55 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Phil Jagielka · Everton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 54' | 🟨 | Gareth Barry · Everton |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ashley Young · Man United |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tom Davies · Everton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Robles · Everton |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ashley Williams · Everton |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Zlatan Ibrahimović · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 338.00 | 307.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1755.80 | 1648.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.12 | 7.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| league points | 53.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.15 | 26.31 |
| state index | 1.00 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 44.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |