← Premier League 2016-17 · Tue, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 65% | 62% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 13% | 18% | 7.48 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Lee Cattermole · Sunderland |
| 69' | ⚽ | Islam Slimani · Leicester |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 40.00 | 277.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.49 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1595.10 | 1439.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.74 | -38.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.77 |
| league points | 33.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | -1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.99 | 27.54 |
| state index | 0.70 | -1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.56 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 255.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |