← Premier League 2016-17 · Tue, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 40% | 35% | 2.47 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.16 | fair |
| Stoke win | 29% | 38% | 3.34 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Stephen Ward · Burnley |
| 30' | 🟨 | Joey Barton · Burnley |
| 58' | ⚽ | George Boyd · Burnley |
| 76' | 🟨 | Charlie Adam · Stoke |
| 88' | 🟨 | Bruno Martins Indi · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Boyd · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.95 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 1646.00 | 1434.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1723.58 | 1747.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.28 | -9.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| league points | 32.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.88 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.60 | 28.87 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.53 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 89.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |