← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 50% | 51% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.43 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 21% | 23% | 4.62 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Leroy Fer · Swansea |
| 23' | 🟨 | Fábio · Middlesbrough |
| 58' | 🟨 | Alfie Mawson · Swansea |
| 69' | 🟨 | Álvaro Negredo · Middlesbrough |
| 79' | 🟨 | Rudy Gestede · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 91.00 | 1248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1676.39 | 1670.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.06 | -28.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| league points | 27.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 29.74 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 373.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |