← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 41% | 42% | 2.41 | fair |
| Arsenal win | 34% | 26% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.84 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Man City |
| 8' | 🟨 | Jesús Navas · Man City |
| 15' | 🟨 | Francis Coquelin · Arsenal |
| 32' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 40' | ⚽ | Theo Walcott · Arsenal |
| 42' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 47' | 🟨 | Fernandinho · Man City |
| 53' | ⚽ | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 61' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 7489.00 | 275.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1714.54 | 1738.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -60.88 | 8.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| league points | 50.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 65.20 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | 2.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.92 | 28.57 |
| state index | 0.07 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.09 | 1.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 256.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |