← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 50% | 49% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 23% | 23% | 4.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | ⚽ | Miguel Britos · Watford |
| 72' | 🟨 | Billy Jones · Sunderland |
| 77' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · Sunderland |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lamine Koné · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days |
| 274.00 |
| 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1482.38 | 1447.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.00 | -7.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| league points | 31.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.06 | 27.77 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | -1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 368.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |