← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 71% | 57% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 29% | 5.05 | value: +45% |
| West Brom win | 10% | 14% | 10.00 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Marcos Rojo · Man United |
| 47' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · West Brom |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wayne Rooney · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marouane Fellaini · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Claudio Yacob · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days |
| 335.00 |
| 852.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1762.06 | 1566.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.41 | -4.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| league points | 52.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 35.80 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -1.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.44 | 30.13 |
| state index | 1.18 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -1.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 108.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |