← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 57% | 39% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 44% | 3.79 | value: +68% ⚠ |
| Everton win | 17% | 17% | 5.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 26' | 🟨 | Tom Davies · Everton |
| 28' | ⚽ | Matthew Pennington · Everton |
| 31' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · Liverpool |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ross Barkley · Everton |
| 60' | ⚽ | Divock Origi · Liverpool |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ashley Williams · Everton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Emre Can · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 9.00 | 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1708.93 | 1658.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.63 | 13.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.81 |
| league points | 56.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.46 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.93 | 27.69 |
| state index | 0.90 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 0.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |