← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 52% | 50% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.65 | fair |
| Stoke win | 21% | 24% | 4.59 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Ryan Shawcross · Stoke |
| 25' | ⚽ | Wilfred Ndidi · Leicester |
| 29' | 🟨 | Glenn Whelan · Stoke |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 60' | 🟨 | Christian Fuchs · Leicester |
| 69' | 🟨 | Peter Crouch · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marko Arnautovic · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.91 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 37.00 | 1431.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1780.78 | 1759.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.79 | 7.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.65 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 30.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.57 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.58 | 28.62 |
| state index | 0.81 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.58 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| travel km | — | 80.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |