← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 72% | 76% | 1.36 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.25 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 9% | 7% | 10.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Cesc Fàbregas · Chelsea |
| 9' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 11' | ⚽ | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 50' | 🟨 | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 68' | 🟨 | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 73' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 79' | 🟨 | Gary Cahill · Chelsea |
| 83' | 🟨 | David Luiz · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 24 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 274.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1998.87 | 1678.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.77 | 13.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 72.20 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| league points | 69.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.46 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.04 | 27.40 |
| state index | 2.00 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 11.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |