← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 55% | 61% | 1.78 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.81 | fair |
| Burnley win | 19% | 18% | 5.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | 🟨 | Michael Keane · Burnley |
| 66' | ⚽ | Eric Dier · Tottenham |
| 77' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 1643.00 | 1005.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1476.04 | 1755.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.34 | -2.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.47 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 32.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.16 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.49 | 26.13 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.59 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 283.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |