← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 58% | 53% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 31% | 3.96 | value: +23% |
| Southampton win | 17% | 16% | 5.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Eric Dier · Tottenham |
| 14' | ⚽ | Christian Eriksen · Tottenham |
| 26' | 🟨 | Nathan Redmond · Southampton |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 39' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · Tottenham |
| 52' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Victor Wanyama · Tottenham |
| 81' | 🟨 | Sofiane Boufal · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| venue | White Hart Lane |
| coach days | 992.00 | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.11 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1750.76 | 1591.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.40 | 12.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.50 |
| league points | 56.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 25.97 | 26.41 |
| state index | 0.96 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 120.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |