← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 58% | 61% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.89 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 16% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Phil Jones · Man United |
| 30' | ⚽ | Marouane Fellaini · Man United |
| 33' | 🟨 | Adam Clayton · Middlesbrough |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jesse Lingard · Man United |
| 77' | ⚽ | Rudy Gestede · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | ⚽ | Antonio Valencia · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Riverside |
| coach days | 1234.00 | 322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1433.46 | 1756.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.78 | 9.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.94 |
| league points | 22.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 12.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 19.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.70 | 28.36 |
| state index | -0.80 | 1.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 142.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |