← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 60% | 57% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.21 | value: +10% |
| West Brom win | 17% | 17% | 5.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Craig Dawson · West Brom |
| 15' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 42' | 🟨 | James McClean · West Brom |
| 55' | ⚽ | Hal Robson-Kanu · West Brom |
| 75' | ⚽ | Craig Dawson · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 838.00 | 7474.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1545.91 | 1734.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.56 | -38.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 40.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.43 | 1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 30.02 | 26.96 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.26 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 165.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |