← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 37% | 44% | 2.66 | value: +17% |
| Burnley win | 32% | 29% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Joey Barton · Burnley |
| 58' | 🟨 | Darron Gibson · Sunderland |
| 81' | 🟨 | Fabio Borini · Sunderland |
| 86' | 🟨 | Billy Jones · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 260.00 | 1629.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1638.90 | 1733.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.18 | -20.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| league points | 19.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 61.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.00 | 33.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.76 | -2.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.16 | 28.48 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.17 | -1.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 136.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |