← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 50% | 59% | 1.94 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 22% | 3.43 | fair |
| Watford win | 21% | 19% | 4.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Tom Cleverley · Watford |
| 66' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | Troy Deeney · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 6 |
| 0 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 107.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1479.36 | 1491.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.55 | 12.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 25.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | -1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.47 | 29.64 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -1.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 35.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |