← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 44% | 42% | 2.22 | fair |
| Swansea win | 28% | 25% | 3.51 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.51 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ (og) | Alfie Mawson · Bournemouth |
| 40' | 🟨 | Sung-Yueng Ki · Swansea |
| 72' | ⚽ | Benik Afobe · Bournemouth |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jack Cork · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1629.00 | 76.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1488.22 | 1495.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.74 | 6.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| league points | 30.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 27.93 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 177.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |