← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 76% | 79% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.10 | fair |
| Burnley win | 8% | 6% | 12.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ben Mee · Burnley |
| 45' | ⚽ | Georginio Wijnaldum · Liverpool |
| 58' | 🟨 | Joey Barton · Burnley |
| 61' | ⚽ | Emre Can · Liverpool |
| 63' | 🟨 | Emre Can · Liverpool |
| 87' | 🟨 | Adam Lallana · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 528.00 | 1623.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.73 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1703.02 | 1478.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.53 | 2.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| league points | 52.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 62.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.05 | -2.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 28.83 |
| state index | 0.66 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | -1.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 62.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |