← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 38% | 34% | 2.56 | fair |
| Swansea win | 32% | 34% | 3.07 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.29 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Alfred N'Diaye · Hull |
| 45' | 🟨 | Martin Olsson · Swansea |
| 56' | 🟨 | Tom Huddlestone · Hull |
| 69' | ⚽ | Oumar Niasse · Hull |
| 73' | 🟨 | Lazar Marković · Hull |
| 78' | ⚽ | Oumar Niasse · Hull |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alfie Mawson · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days | 69.00 | 69.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1436.79 | 1506.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.86 | 28.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.53 |
| league points | 21.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.33 | 27.78 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 335.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |