← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 59% | 56% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.92 | fair |
| West Brom win | 15% | 18% | 6.35 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Kevin Mirallas · Everton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Morgan Schneiderlin · Everton |
| 73' | 🟨 | Claudio Yacob · West Brom |
| 81' | 🟨 | Gareth Barry · Everton |
| 82' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Everton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days |
| 283.00 |
| 831.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1641.61 | 1556.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.41 | -7.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| league points | 44.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | -1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.52 | 30.25 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -1.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 123.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |