← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 38% | 28% | 2.59 | fair |
| West Ham win | 34% | 44% | 2.86 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Mark Noble · West Ham |
| 10' | ⚽ | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 31' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pedro Obiang · West Ham |
| 48' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 66' | 🟨 | Marc Pugh · Bournemouth |
| 72' | 🟨 | Benik Afobe · Bournemouth |
| 80' | 🟨 | Dan Gosling · Bournemouth |
| 83' | ⚽ | André Ayew · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steve Cook · Bournemouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 15 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1622.00 | 649.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1477.22 | 1572.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.45 | -4.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| league points | 27.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.86 | 27.91 |
| state index | -1.16 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 156.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |