← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 79% | 81% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 7.05 | fair |
| Stoke win | 7% | 7% | 14.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Phil Bardsley · Stoke |
| 54' | 🟨 | Leroy Sané · Man City |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jonathan Walters · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ramadan Sobhi · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.60 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 250.00 | 1407.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1746.65 | 1566.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.64 | -2.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.86 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 55.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.12 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.07 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 29.44 | 29.51 |
| state index | 1.54 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 55.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |