← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 76% | 65% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.60 | value: +15% |
| Sunderland win | 9% | 17% | 10.95 | value: +87% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | John O'Shea · Sunderland |
| 42' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 59' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 247.00 | 247.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1454.58 | 1740.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.29 | 2.74 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 19.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 65.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 2.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | 2.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 28.65 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 167.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |