← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Jones, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 41% | 43% | 2.37 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.23 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 28% | 26% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 55' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 84' | ⚽ | Andros Townsend · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 824.00 | 93.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1578.70 | 1457.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.16 | -7.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| league points | 40.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.46 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 30.38 | 27.47 |
| state index | 0.67 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.84 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 178.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |