← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 48% | 45% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.51 | fair |
| Watford win | 24% | 25% | 4.12 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 14' | 🟨 | Cédric Soares · Southampton |
| 28' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · Southampton |
| 33' | 🟨 | Manolo Gabbiadini · Southampton |
| 44' | 🟨 | Stefano Okaka · Watford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nathan Redmond · Southampton |
| 73' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
| 79' | ⚽ | Stefano Okaka · Watford |
| 82' | 🟨 | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 83' | ⚽ | Manolo Gabbiadini · Southampton |
| 86' | ⚽ | Nathan Redmond · Southampton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 11 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 246.00 | 276.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1500.39 | 1581.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.47 | -8.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| league points | 31.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.44 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 29.55 | 26.35 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 107.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |