← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 49% | 50% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.39 | fair |
| Burnley win | 22% | 22% | 4.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Stephen Ward · Burnley |
| 12' | ⚽ | Fernando Llorente · Swansea |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Andre Gray · Burnley |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ben Mee · Burnley |
| 57' | 🟨 | Leroy Fer · Swansea |
| 61' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · Burnley |
| 69' | ⚽ | Martin Olsson · Swansea |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jack Cork · Swansea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fernando Llorente · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 62.00 | 1615.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1498.14 | 1486.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.17 | 7.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.76 |
| league points | 24.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | -2.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.25 | 28.41 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -2.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 264.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |