← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 49% | 51% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 22% | 21% | 4.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Ryan Shawcross · Stoke |
| 29' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · Stoke |
| 42' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · Stoke |
| 45' | 🟨 | George Friend · Middlesbrough |
| 78' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 1403.00 | 1219.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1558.91 | 1441.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.42 | -17.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| league points | 32.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 29.06 | 29.16 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 187.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |