← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 53% | 43% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 34% | 3.61 | value: +24% |
| Hull win | 19% | 23% | 5.05 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Sam Clucas · Hull |
| 27' | ⚽ | Christian Fuchs · Leicester |
| 49' | 🟨 | Danny Drinkwater · Leicester |
| 59' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Leicester |
| 89' | 🟨 | Tom Huddlestone · Hull |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Tom Huddlestone · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 9.00 | 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1564.04 | 1444.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.01 | 25.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| league points | 24.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.20 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.71 | 28.33 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.88 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 135.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |