← Premier League 2016-17 · Mon, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 59% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.05 | value: +7% |
| Leicester win | 17% | 16% | 5.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 39' | ⚽ | Danny Drinkwater · Leicester |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 68' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 12 |
| 8 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 4.00 | 515.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1544.74 | 1707.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -67.79 | -22.66 |
| eye test v1 | -1.18 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 68.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 21.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.91 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.40 | 27.08 |
| state index | -1.05 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.33 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 151.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |