← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 71% | 67% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.30 | value: +8% |
| Stoke win | 11% | 13% | 9.20 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 20' | 🟨 | Glenn Whelan · Stoke |
| 25' | 🟨 | Charlie Adam · Stoke |
| 32' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 37' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 39' | 🟨 | Marko Arnautovic · Stoke |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 67' | 🟨 | Kevin Wimmer · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Victor Wanyama · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | White Hart Lane |
| coach days | 971.00 | 1397.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.38 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1737.14 | 1566.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.54 | 14.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| league points | 50.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.28 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.21 | 29.52 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 210.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |