← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 35% | 34% | 2.79 | fair |
| Watford win | 35% | 34% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 36' | 🟨 | Daryl Janmaat · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 65' | 🟨 | Cheikhou Kouyaté · West Ham |
| 68' | 🟨 | Tom Cleverley · Watford |
| 73' | ⚽ | André Ayew · West Ham |
| 79' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 83' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 86' | 🟨 | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 86' | 🟥 | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 239.00 | 635.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1499.85 | 1578.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.64 | 25.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.10 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 30.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.34 | 27.80 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 31.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |