← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 46% | 50% | 2.15 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
| Burnley win | 25% | 22% | 3.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Ashley Westwood · Burnley |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tom Huddlestone · Hull |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Tom Huddlestone · Hull |
| 76' | ⚽ | Michael Keane · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days | 55.00 | 1608.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1445.23 | 1485.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.94 | 19.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| league points | 20.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -2.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.96 | 28.47 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -1.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 122.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |