← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 68% | 53% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 32% | 4.93 | value: +58% |
| Sunderland win | 12% | 15% | 8.28 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Darron Gibson · Sunderland |
| 40' | ⚽ | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 77' | 🟨 | Bryan Oviedo · Sunderland |
| 80' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 269.00 | 239.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1641.36 | 1460.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.69 | -10.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.68 |
| league points | 41.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.13 | 28.04 |
| state index | 0.93 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 193.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |