← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 47% | 50% | 2.10 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.26 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 23% | 21% | 4.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Yohan Cabaye · Crystal Palace |
| 34' | ⚽ | Patrick van Aanholt · Crystal Palace |
| 75' | 🟨 | Fábio · Middlesbrough |
| 76' | 🟨 | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 83' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 86.00 | 1212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1448.85 | 1449.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.96 | -7.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 19.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 28.11 | 28.01 |
| state index | -0.85 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 361.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |