← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 66% | 61% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.44 | value: +7% |
| Burnley win | 12% | 15% | 8.20 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Pedro · Chelsea |
| 24' | ⚽ | Robbie Brady · Burnley |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ashley Westwood · Burnley |
| 75' | 🟨 | David Luiz · Chelsea |
| 77' | 🟨 | Matthew Lowton · Burnley |
| 88' | 🟨 | Joey Barton · Burnley |
| 89' | 🟨 | Cesc Fàbregas · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 1595.00 | 226.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1479.38 | 1800.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.21 | 11.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 73.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| league points | 29.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 2.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.65 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.74 | 26.77 |
| state index | 0.08 | 1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.51 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 291.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |