← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 47% | 49% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 26% | 25% | 3.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Manolo Gabbiadini · Southampton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Manolo Gabbiadini · Southampton |
| 88' | ⚽ (og) | Jason Denayer · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · Sunderland |
| 90' | ⚽ | Shane Long · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 225.00 | 255.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1477.91 | 1564.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.36 | -41.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| league points | 19.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.21 | 26.26 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 445.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |