← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 46% | 41% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.32 | value: +13% |
| Crystal Palace win | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Damien Delaney · Crystal Palace |
| 40' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jason Puncheon · Crystal Palace |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ryan Shawcross · Stoke |
| 67' | ⚽ | Joe Allen · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 1382.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1561.24 | 1454.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.26 | -34.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 29.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 29.67 | 28.45 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 227.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |