← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 45% | 40% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.33 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 25% | 29% | 3.89 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Adam Clayton · Middlesbrough |
| 85' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| coach days | 1198.00 | 255.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.28 |
| venue | Riverside |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1445.90 | 1645.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.30 | 52.65 |
| eye test v1 | -1.35 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| league points | 21.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.46 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 28.25 | 27.18 |
| state index | -0.74 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 170.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |