← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 77% | 79% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.45 | fair |
| Watford win | 8% | 7% | 12.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Juan Mata · Man United |
| 60' | ⚽ | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonio Valencia · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 286.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1742.68 | 1504.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.90 | 15.94 |
| eye test v1 | 1.08 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.64 |
| league points | 45.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.79 | -1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.14 | 29.40 |
| state index | 1.11 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 238.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |