← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mark Clattenburg, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 75% | 81% | 1.30 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 16% | 14% | 6.06 | fair |
| Hull win | 9% | 6% | 11.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 53' | 🟨 | Theo Walcott · Arsenal |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kieran Gibbs · Arsenal |
| 70' | 🟨 | Andrea Ranocchia · Hull |
| 76' | 🟨 | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟥 | Sam Clucas · Hull |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 7439.00 | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1746.57 | 1448.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.81 | 40.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.84 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| league points | 47.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.80 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.49 | 27.12 |
| state index | 0.60 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 244.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |