← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 56% | 69% | 1.75 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.84 | fair |
| Leicester win | 19% | 12% | 5.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Danny Drinkwater · Leicester |
| 28' | 🟨 | Juan Mata · Man United |
| 40' | 🟨 | Christian Fuchs · Leicester |
| 42' | ⚽ | Henrikh Mkhitaryan · Man United |
| 44' | ⚽ | Zlatan Ibrahimović · Man United |
| 49' | ⚽ | Juan Mata · Man United |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ander Herrera · Man United |
| 56' | 🟨 | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 88' | 🟨 | David De Gea · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 9 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 585.00 | 280.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1573.10 | 1729.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.00 | -0.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | 1.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| league points | 21.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.19 | 1.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 28.08 | 27.72 |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.56 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 121.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |