← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 46% | 55% | 2.13 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.23 | fair |
| Burnley win | 24% | 19% | 4.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | M'Baye Niang · Watford |
| 6' | 🟥 | Jeff Hendrick · Burnley |
| 10' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 20' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 33' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 45' | ⚽ | M'Baye Niang · Watford |
| 77' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Craig Cathcart · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 218.00 | 1587.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1496.38 | 1487.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.83 | 34.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 66.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| league points | 27.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.03 | -1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.06 | 28.49 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.37 | -1.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 267.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |