← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mark Clattenburg, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 76% | 81% | 1.29 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 16% | 14% | 6.15 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 8% | 5% | 12.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Middlesbrough |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| coach days | 949.00 | 1191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| venue | White Hart Lane |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 3.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1771.18 | 1447.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.49 | -8.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 47.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.18 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 25.91 | 28.44 |
| state index | 1.42 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 339.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |