← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 64% | 58% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.43 | fair |
| Hull win | 14% | 20% | 7.15 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Hull |
| 40' | 🟨 | James Milner · Liverpool |
| 44' | ⚽ | Alfred N'Diaye · Hull |
| 74' | 🟨 | Josh Tymon · Hull |
| 84' | ⚽ | Oumar Niasse · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 15 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days | 34.00 | 492.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1424.92 | 1714.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.25 | -11.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| league points | 17.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.93 | 26.67 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 174.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |