← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 58% | 51% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.82 | value: +5% |
| Sunderland win | 17% | 21% | 5.81 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Sebastian Larsson · Sunderland |
| 9' | ⚽ | Lamine Koné · Sunderland |
| 31' | 🟨 | Adnan Januzaj · Sunderland |
| 33' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 43' | ⚽ | Didier N'Dong · Sunderland |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jermain Defoe · Sunderland |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jermain Defoe · Sunderland |
| 66' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
| 71' | 🟨 | Lamine Koné · Sunderland |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jason Puncheon · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 65.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 1.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1477.52 | 1454.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.74 | -26.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.88 | 27.87 |
| state index | -0.59 | -1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 400.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |